Doll: Long-Term Looks Good For Stocks, Short-Term Questionable

Blackrock’s Bob Doll says the longer-term picture for stocks is a good one, though there may be some “corrective action” in the shorter-term.

“Looking ahead, we believe the backdrop for risk assets remains a solid one,” Doll writes in his weekly commentary on Blackrock’s site. “The global economy is hardly experiencing boom conditions and remains subject to the hangover effects of the massive financial crisis, but improvements have been real and sustainable. Interest rates around the world are low, with little chance of moving higher any time soon. This backdrop, combined with at-least reasonable valuations, should help equities to continue to outperform.”

In the shorter term, however, Doll says that “the improvements we have seen in recent months do appear to have been absorbed by the markets, which explains the nearly uninterrupted move higher in stock prices we have recently experienced. As such, we would caution that stocks may be overdue for some sort of corrective action.” But, he adds, “our long-term view remains a constructive one.”

Doll says he expects U.S. growth in the first quarter to come in somewhere around last quarter’s 2.8% pace. He says he sees a soft landing for China, where growth is slowing. And he says that the risk of a massive run on European banks is decreasing due to the European Central Bank’s recent actions, and that the risk of a chaotic debt default for Greece is also decreasing, though Greece’s long-term prospects remain uncertain.