PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian says he thinks there is a 25% chance that the U.S. will run into deflation and a double-dip recession.

“I do not think the deflation and double-dip is the baseline scenario, but I think it’s the risk scenario,” El-Erian says, according to Bloomberg. He also says unemployment will probably stay unusually high.

El-Erian says that the trend of companies piling up cash and consumers saving make it difficult to fight deflation, Bloomberg reports.