Goldman Sachs’ bear market prediction metric is at 73 percent, the highest level since the late 1960s and early 1970s, according to a CNBC.com article.
The elevated level has historically signaled a zero-average return over the ensuing 12 months and a “substantial” risk of drawdown, the article reports.
The indicator considers the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the yield curve and share valuations. According to Goldman chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer, “Historically, when the Indicator rises above 60 percent it is a good signal to investors to turn cautious, or at the very least recognize that a correction followed by a rally is more likely to be followed by a bear market than when these indicators are low.”
But while the indicator may be “flashing red,” Oppenheimer said it may not be time to jump to conclusions. “There remain good reasons why this indicator has been consistent with a sharp correction rather than the start of a prolonged bear market. We continue to expect a sustained period of low returns rather than a sustained bear market,” he said.