How You Can Be Like Buffett

In every other issue of my investment newsletter, The Validea Hot List, I look in detail at one of the computerized guru models I run on Validea.com. In this week’s issue, I outlined my Patient Investor strategy, inspired by the approach that Warren Buffett has used to become one of history’s greatest investors. Below you will find an excerpt from the newsletter along with a handful of top-scoring stock ideas based on the Buffett investment… Read More

Roubini Offers Good News (Sort Of)

Nouriel Roubini — the economist who predicted the economic crisis and who has been dubbed “Dr. Doom” for his dire predictions — now thinks the global recession will end later this year, significantly earlier than he has previously predicted. “We are not yet at the bottom of the U.S. and the global recession,” Roubini told Reuters. “The contraction is still occurring and the recession is going to be over more towards the end of the… Read More

Zweig: WWGD? (What Would Graham Do?)

Writing sixty years to the day after Benjamin Graham’s classic The Intelligent Investor was published, Jason Zweig says that Graham would be cautious amid a market like this one. “Today the market seems to be in just the kind of mood that would have worried Mr. Graham: a jittery optimism, an insecure and almost desperate need to believe that the worst is over,” writes Zweig, whose commentary accompanied the 2003 version of Graham’s famous book.… Read More

Yale’s Swensen on Asset Allocation — and Why to Avoid Mutual Funds

On WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack, Yale endowment guru David Swensen discusses his thoughts on how individual investors should structure their portfolios, where the markets are headed, and why you should steer clear of mutual funds. According to Swensen, who as manager of Yale’s endowment has grown the university’s portfolio from $1 billion to about $17 billion during his 24-year tenure, says that long-term individual investors should focus on equities — especially now. “With a long… Read More

Fisher, Others See Big Value in Russia

Kenneth Fisher and two other major money managers are making aggressive stock plays in Russia, where turmoil and problems persist but valuations are at the lowest levels of the 50 major markets, Bloomberg reports. “Russia in some ways today is just a levered play on the world,” said Fisher, who thinks we are in the early part of a global rally. “Early in a bull market, Russia is going to run more.” A big reason… Read More

Tilson Turns Bearish on Banks

About two months after turning bullish on some financials, Whitney Tilson — who predicted the housing bust and financial crisis — is now taking profits on some of his bank bets and predicting that more financial troubles are on the way. “There will be a headwind of continued losses for the better part of five years” with banks facing more losses on residential and commercial real estate, Tilson told Reuters, estimating additional losses of more… Read More

Stocks Rising, Dollar Falling — How to Benefit from Both

As stocks have surged over the past two-and-a-half months, the dollar has tumbled. And, according to Francois Trahan and ISI Group’s Portfolio Strategy Group, you can reap the benefits of both. On Barrons.com, Randall W. Forsyth writes that Trahan’s group says investors bullish on U.S. equities should buy stock in big, global companies that may be based outside the States, but compete in the same markets as American firms. Trahan’s group feels that “if you… Read More

The Other Side: Bond Backers Remain Wary of Equities

While many have joined the bullish camp in recent weeks, several top strategists remain much less enthusiastic about stocks, notes TheStreet.com’s Stan Luxenberg. Chief among the bears is Rob Arnott, of Research Affiliates and the PIMCO All Asset fund. Arnott, who recently published a paper saying that bonds — not stocks — have historically been the best investment vehicle, continues to see challenges to stocks. He’s been underweighting stocks and focusing on bonds. Arnott is… Read More

Top Timing Newsletters All Bullish

The seven most successful market-timing newsletters are all bullish, writes MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert, who tracks investment newsletters’ performance at his Hulbert Financial Digest. Hulbert says he searched his database for newsletters that outperformed buy-and-hold strategies in the 2000-2002 bear market, the current bear market, and the bull market that occurred in between. He found that just seven of the almost 200 newsletters he tracks have beaten the market in all three of those separate periods… Read More

Is This Crisis Really a “White Swan”?

In a recent article for the CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, James Montier, Societe Generale Cross Asset Research’s global strategist, argues that the recent economic crisis and market plunge were not, as many have said, an unprecedented, unpredictable “black swan” event. Instead, he says the events have the characteristics of what psychologists call a “predictable surprise” — a “white swan”. “Volatility has indeed been higher historically, so today’s situation is not unprecedented,” Montier writes. “Furthermore,… Read More