History Rhymes — But Do We Learn from It?

Robert F. Bruner, dean of the University of Virginia’s Graduate School of Business and author of The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm, writes on Forbes.com that the current financial crisis shares a number of attributes with past economic and market crises. But, he asks, “does the recurrence of crises actually mean we’ve learned little from them? More important, what can we learn from them?” Bruner says that the current crisis… Read More

Zweig: Joe Investor’s Time Is Now

Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig makes the current case for the individual investor, and highlights the vast array of asset classes that are presenting very attractive values. While stocks are cheap, other areas such as corporate and municipal bonds, emerging markets, TIPS, real estate and closed-end funds are also so beaten up that opportunities abound.

Shiller P/E

Fortune’s Shawn Tully recently looked at the Shiller P/E model (developed by Yale University professor Robert Shiller), which calculates the P/E ratio of the market using ten years worth of earnings (vs. just the earnings of the last 12 months). Currently, the market P/E based on the Shiller model is around 15, which is lower than it’s been in 20 years. The bottom line is the lower the P/E is when you invest the higher… Read More

Is it Really that Different This Time?

Validea Newsleter – Nov. 14, 2008. The economic news is still bad, with unemployment up, retail sales down, and manufacturing activity very weak. Still, despite all the negativity, things haven’t yet gotten as bad as they were during past major downturns, such as 1973-74 and 1982-83. On the bright side, the LIBOR has been dropping, though banks still aren’t doing a whole lot of lending to each other. And the Treasury Department is now backtracking… Read More

Winters, Arnott & Kessler Share Ideas

Three well respected investment minds – David Winters of the Wintergreen Fund, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates & Robert Kessler of The Kessler Companies – share their outlooks and thoughts on Consuelo Mack’s WealthTrack. Winters thinks we’re seeing the most attractive values of his lifetime, while Arnott says stocks look the cheapest they’ve been in years.

Buffett Adds to ConocoPhillips Holdings

Berkshire Hathaway’s latest quarterly filing reveals that Buffett has added to his stake in oil producer ConocoPhillips and bought shares of the manufacturer Eaton Corp. He reduced his holdings in Bank of America Corp. Berkshire is now ConocoPhillips largest shareholder. According to a 2007 academic study by Gerald Martin of American University and John Puthenpurackal of University of Nevada, if an investor would have followed Berkshire’s purchases, even with the delayed notice, they would have… Read More

Siegel: Stocks Are “Dirt Cheap” Right Now

In an interview with Advisor Perspectives, Siegel says he “may be the lone optimist in this market.” The noted investment author and commentator argues that the current market P/E is a mere 10.7 and that investors could see stocks return 20% over the next 12 months, although he sees a very difficult fourth quarter and a tough first quarter for the overall economy. Siegel’s putting his money where his mouth is though, and has his… Read More

Are Investors Suffering from “Irrational Pessimism”?

Marty Whitman, who’s been in the investment management business for 50 years and manages the Third Avenue Value fund, tells The Wall Street Journal that fear — not fundamentals — is driving this market. Whitman sees fantastic opportunities in high-yield bonds and in stocks of companies with strong balance sheets that don’t require access to the capital markets. See the WSJ article.