The Economic Cycle Research Institute finally threw in the towel on its off-the-mark 2012-13 recession call earlier this month. But given the firm’s stellar long-term track record, ECRI’s take on where the economy is heading now — and why it missed the mark on its recession call — are important to understand.
Lakshman Achuthan, whose Economic Cycle Research Institute has a strong track record of calling economic expansions and recessions, has faced a lot of criticism for ECRI’s contention that the U.S. is in a recession that started in mid-2012. But he and the group are not wavering. “We’re not budging from our call,” Achuthan told Business Insider in an email. “Looking back, the epicenter of the recession was the half-year spanning Q4 2012 and Q1 2013,… Read More
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute continues to say that the U.S. is in a recession that began in the middle of 2012. Achuthan tells Bloomberg Surveillance that initial GDP readings are often revised downward by 2% to 4% during recessions, meaning the weak growth numbers we’ve seen over the past year or so could actually be revised into negative territory. As for the strong manufacturing data coming from the Institute for Supply… Read More
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute is standing by his previous call about the U.S. having entered recession in the middle of 2012. Achuthan tells Bloomberg Surveillance that, while home prices have increased, “that does not mean you don’t have a recession.” He also says rising housing prices do “not mean an upturn in construction activity.” He says recessions are defined using four areas: production, employment, income, and sales. Both production and income… Read More
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute says the U.S. is in a recession. Achuthan tells Bloomberg that jobs data is one key indicator signaling that recession is here. He also says he thinks GDP growth will be revised downward significantly for the first half of this year. Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Capital, offers a counterpoint.
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute says the U.S. economy is in recession. Achuthan, who had been forecasting a recession by mid-2012 for the past several months, tells Bloomberg that industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income growth data is all indicating that a recession has begun. Achuthan says that a recession doesn’t have to involve a fall off an economic cliff, but is simply when the economy has peaked and… Read More
The Economic Cycle Research Institute is standing by its call for the U.S. to enter recession in the middle of this year. ECRI COO Lakshman Achuthan tells Bloomberg that recent data is confirming what the group has been saying for some time: that recession is coming. A decline in the rate of job growth supports that belief, he says, adding that personal income growth is a “real weak spot”. He does add, however, that he… Read More
The Economic Cycle Research Institute is continuing to stand by its recession call, and now contends that a reason for the recent improvement in U.S. economic data is a problem with the way seasonal adjustments are made. In a press release on its web site, ECRI says that recent data is worse than many believe. “In contrast to the 3% GDP growth widely reported for the latest quarter, year-over-year growth in GDP, after peaking at 3½%… Read More
Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute says that, despite all the positive economic reports we’ve seen recently, several key indicators show the economy is actually on the decline and headed into recession. Achuthan says GDP numbers, personal income growth, sales data, and industrial production have all been on the decline and paint a picture very similar to those that preceded past recessions.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, whose group has a strong track record of forecasting economic cycles, continues to think we’ve been “tipping into a recession” since September. Achuthan tells CNBC that ECRI sees a “contagion among the forward-looking indicators” that the group looks at to forecast economic movements, though he declined to discuss just what those indicators are.