Along with its recent rate increase, the Fed has upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts—and this could bode well for commodity stocks, writes Validea CEO John Reese in in his article this week for Nasdaq. Reese cites a tighter labor market, stabilizing oil prices and slowing appreciation of the U.S. dollar as potential contributors to inflation, and cites AAII Journal data pointing to a strong outlook for commodity stocks: He identifies five commodity stocks worth… Read More
The results of a study on asset performance during periods of both low and high inflation are presented in this month’s issue of AAII Journal by Craig Israelsen Ph.D and developer of the 7Twelve Portfolio The median level of inflation used was 3.29%, as it allowed researchers to divide the 46-year period between 1970 and 2015 in half: 23 years with below-median inflation and 23 years with above-median inflation. Findings showed that during the period of low… Read More
As the S&P continues to hover at record high levels, the question remains as to how long it can continue. In a recent article for Forbes, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, outlines what he sees as five potential market scenarios down the road: Secular stagnation: The status quo—”a continuation of the slow-growth, low-inflation regime that has been in place since the global financial crisis ended.” Deglobalization: Post-Brexit, Timmer sees potential for… Read More
Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, says that the recent market environment is reminiscent of 1999, just before the tech bubble burst. Writing in Barron’s, Arnott argues that the following four “conditions parallel the extremes of the late 1990s:” “Falling inflation expectations,” which Arnott argues “snap back in reasonably short order.” He observes that “after inflation expectations hit a basement low of 0.9% in December 1998, within six months they had jumped to… Read More
A recent piece in Forbes offers 4 suggestions for beating inflation. After noting that “the present 0% rate [of inflation] blends an upward march of 2% in the cost of services with a collapse in the price of oil,” the article observes that “if commodities rebound over several years, 4% inflation could surface.” To protect against this risk, the article explores 4 options: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): These offer real protection for the principal invested,… Read More
In an article in Canada’s Financial Post, columnist David Pett offers up some valuable investment insights from James Paulson, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, who has been mostly correct in his stock market and economic calls since early in the bull market. Paulson explains that often, investors weight the consensus opinion in the market too heavily and lose sight about the factors that end up influencing what happens in the future. Paulson recently… Read More
Billionaire investor Ron Baron has a message for those who are trying to predict how day-to-day news will impact the stock market: Stop.
Growth in US productivity has slowed considerably over the past decade, and explanations abound as to why. But Wharton professor and author Jeremy Siegel says the reality may be that new innovations have led to flawed data that underestimates just how productive the US has been.
Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders says that the risk of a correction is elevated, but she thinks the bull market is still in tact.
With the Nasdaq recently closing above 5,000 for the first time in a decade-and-a-half, bears have said that the index really should be adjusted for inflation to get a better assessment of where things stand, valuation-wise. Barry Ritholtz says that’s nonsense.