Jeffrey Gundlach Says S&P 500 Will be Down in 2018

Billionaire bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 will be down at the end of this year, and doubts the long-term value of bitcoin. This according to a recent Bloomberg article. During his annual “Just Markets” webcast earlier this month, the chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital argued, “All recession indicators are flashing no recession, which means it’s priced in. This is why I say S&P 500 [will end] down after a pretty decent… Read More

Forecasting is a Folly

The tendency at this time of year for those in the financial industry to make predictions about what’s to come is characterized by¬†Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz as a “prelude to looking foolish.” “Over the past years,” writes Ritholtz, “it has been my distinct privilege (and, truth be told, pleasure) to point out how silly this process is,” adding that some of the financial industry’s bigger firms and notable economists are jumping on the bandwagon. Referencing… Read More

Market Forecasting Difficult

A recent article in The Economist discusses the difficulty analysts face in forecasting returns given the current market’s stretched valuations. “Just as fund managers cannot be relied on to be consistent, returns from asset classes are highly variable. The higher the initial valuation of the asset, the lower the future returns are likely to be.”   The article offers GMO data showing, “The assets that GMO thought would yield a negative return of -10% to… Read More