Does GMO’s Jeremy Grantham See a Bubble Coming?

GMO’s Jeremy Grantham says stocks and bonds will “fail to generate inflation-beating returns over the next seven years, but he doesn’t see an imminent crash in share prices,” according to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal. The article says that Grantham, who predicted bubbles in 2000 and 2007, argues that while current stock valuations are high, they are supported by healthy profit margins. Further, he believes that the Fed’s low interest rate policy… Read More

Cliff Asness Says Stocks and Bonds Will Return only 2%

At the 2nd annual Evidence-Based Investing Conference earlier this month, AQR’s Cliff Asness shared his view that the expensive financial markets will offer weaker returns going forward. This according to a recent CNBC article. According to the article, Asness predicts that investors with a “balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds will only generate 2 percent real annual returns,” but warned against betting against the market. He argues that strong evidence exists indicating that high CAPE… Read More

Are We Partying Like its 1999?

By Jack M. Forehand (@practicalquant) —  One of the most common comparisons I hear for the current state of the stock market is the bubble of the late 90s. With the market seemingly setting new highs every day, valuations stretched, and technology stocks leading the way, there appear to be many similarities on the surface. When you look deeper, however, there are also some clear differences. Given that the 90s rally ended on a bad… Read More

Hulbert: Small Cap Sector Shockingly Overvalued

In a recent MarketWatch article, Mark Hulbert reveals a revised calculation that the small-cap sector is currently valued at a whopping 78.7 times earnings. He writes, “the Russell 2000’s true P/E today is higher than it was at either the top of the internet bubble or the 2007 bull market peak.” Hulbert describes the calculation, which he credits to financial services firm INTL FCStone’s Vincent Deluard, who told him that nearly a third of the… Read More

David Tepper Says the Market is Not Overheated

The head of Appaloosa Management is “rejecting arguments that stocks are overvalued and believes there are still plenty of opportunities,” according to a recent CNBC article. Tepper says “any comparisons to past overheated markets are ridiculous,” adding that while stocks do look expensive, higher multiples are supported by the global economy in which he believes growth will continue and earnings will improve. Tepper argues further that stocks are still inexpensive relative to interest rates, and… Read More

Shiller Says Market Valuations Warrant Caution

Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller writes in a recent New York Times article that “today’s CAPE is sending a troubling message,” noting that the market valuation ratio he developed (which now stands at nearly 30) was higher only in 1929 and around 2000 (when it hit 33 and 44, respectively). In both instances, Shiller writes, “market declines followed those very high readings.” He qualifies his comments, however, by clarifying that the CAPE “suggests a dim outlook… Read More

Buffett Puts Market’s Valuation in Context with Earnings Yield vs. 10 Year

In a CNBC interview that aired last month, Warren Buffett shared his thoughts on current market valuations and how he would respond to investors that feel they missed their opportunity to buy into the market. “Well, I would say they don’t know, and I don’t know. And if there’s a game it’s very good to be in for the rest of your life, the idea to stay out of it because you think you know… Read More

The Market Valuation Snapshot

In our Hotlist newsletter from last month we took a look at the market’s stretched valuations based on several indicators, and offered insight regarding how actions by the current administration may or may not substantiate them. The market P/E from the beginning of the year, based on trailing 12-month earnings (as of January 9th ,) was 25. We tracked other metrics as follows: Shiller P/E: 28.2, up from 25.7 as of the last update in… Read More

European Fund Manager Says Bonds May Rebound

The largest money manager in Europe believes that investors who have driven U.S. stock markets to record highs in anticipation of fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration “may be in for a surprise,” says a recent Bloomberg article. Didier Borowski, head of macroeconomics for Paris-based Amundi SA, argues that even if Trump delivers on his fiscal stimulus promises, results won’t surface before next year. “Following the vote for Trump,” he says, “markets have reacted as… Read More

Market’s Valuation Could Hold Back Trump Bull

During the Trump years, it will be tougher for stocks to see the kind of gains that occurred during the Obama administration,” according to last week’s Wall Street Journal. This is not only because the market had bottomed when Obama took office (and stocks were cheap), but also because of “what happened to corporate profits versus the overall economy.” At the end of last year, that article states, the total value of U.S. stocks was… Read More