Goldman’s Bear Market Indicator Signaling Zero Returns Over Coming 12 Months

Goldman Sachs’ bear market prediction metric is at 73 percent, the highest level since the late 1960s and early 1970s, according to a CNBC.com article. The elevated level has historically signaled a zero-average return over the ensuing 12 months and a “substantial” risk of drawdown, the article reports. The indicator considers the unemployment rate, manufacturing data, core inflation, the yield curve and share valuations. According to Goldman chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer, “Historically, when… Read More

Bridgewater Has Strong Showing in 2016

Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates earned almostĀ  $5 billion for its clients last year according to a report by hedge-fund investor LCH Investments NV, versus losses suffered by rivals George Soros and John Paulson. This according to a recent Bloomberg article. In fact, the article points out, Bridgewater was the “most lucrative, in absolute terms, of the top-20 hedge funds ranked, and bucked the trend of a generally disappointing year for the industry.” In the report,… Read More

Expectations for 2017 Market

An overview of expectations and factors that could affect the market in the coming year were outlined by strategist Burt White of LPL Financial in a recent Barron’s article. GDP: “We expect growth to accelerate modestly to near 2.5% with a low chance of a recession in 2017, driven by gains in consumer and business spending, supported by potential pro-growth fiscal policies.” While White says the odds of a recession based on economic data remain… Read More