The Monster of Uncertainty

This phrase was coined by a Dutch professor to describe how the scientific community views uncertainties in the natural world. In a recent Advisor Perspectives article, Scott MacKillop of Denver-based First Ascent Asset Management, relates the metaphor to the financial markets. Unlike in environmental science where there are hard and fast rules (gravity, planetary motion, and velocity to name a few), MacKillop writes, “All investment decisions involve an element of uncertainty. No matter how hard… Read More

Bloomberg Gadfly Kaissar Refutes Conventional Wisdom on Value Investing

We’ve seen growth stocks outperform value for a decade, says Bloomberg Gadfly Nir Kaissar, so some investors are thinking it’s time for the tide to turn. He cites evidence in the form of Bloomberg data showing that investors put $5.5 billion into value ETF’s and withdrew $6.2 billion from growth ETF’s so far this year. However, Kaissar points out, the adage that value stocks outperform during expansions and underperform during contractions just doesn’t hold up.… Read More

Will Value Stocks Ever Be Back in Vogue?

Maybe, but it seems the jury is still out. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that value ETFs have taken in $5.5 billion in 2016, while growth ETFs have seen withdrawals to the tune of $6.2 billion. This could be a function of increased investor optimism, says Dan Miller of Boston-based GW&K Investment Management. “Value has done so poorly for so long and it’s under-owned among investors. All we need is for investor interest to pick… Read More

Four Conditions Reminiscent of 1999

Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, says that the recent market environment is reminiscent of 1999, just before the tech bubble burst. Writing in Barron’s, Arnott argues that the following four “conditions parallel the extremes of the late 1990s:” “Falling inflation expectations,” which Arnott argues “snap back in reasonably short order.” He observes that “after inflation expectations hit a basement low of 0.9% in December 1998, within six months they had jumped to… Read More