Were Market Gurus Accurate about Recent Predictions?

At the start of 2019, BAM Alliance director of research Larry Swedroe outlined a list of predictions–made by various market experts and investors–to identify a consensus of “sure things” that he recently scored with “+1” for true, “-1” for false.

Below is a chart outlining his findings:

Prediction Score
U.S. economic growth would continue strong -1
Corporate profit growth would continue strong -1
U.S. stock market would have a strong year +1
It would be safe to extend maturities +1
The dollar would weaken versus the euro -1
Strong performance for gold +1
Global market volatility would remain high -1

Swedroe sums up the findings of four “winners” and four “losers” to a net score of zero, offering the following chart which he describes as “historical evidence on my list of sure things:”

“Apparently,” he concludes, “sure things are not so sure.”