European Fund Manager Says Bonds May Rebound

The largest money manager in Europe believes that investors who have driven U.S. stock markets to record highs in anticipation of fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration “may be in for a surprise,” says a recent Bloomberg article.

Didier Borowski, head of macroeconomics for Paris-based Amundi SA, argues that even if Trump delivers on his fiscal stimulus promises, results won’t surface before next year. “Following the vote for Trump,” he says, “markets have reacted as if there were only upside risks. U.S. equity markets could go further into bubble territory as risks are becoming increasingly asymmetric. That would be an opportunity to reallocate funds to bond markets.”

The article says that while Trump’s victory has led to a pivot of funds from bonds to equities, “financial market observers and investors are split about the continuation of that trend, sometimes named the ‘great rotation’.”

Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global strategist at Charles Schwab Corp., believes the rotation has “years to run”, but Borowski argues that bonds may rebound because “growth will probably continue at a slow pace.” In his opinion, global uncertainties such as a potential trade war between the U.S. and China, loom large.

“The bond market isn’t dead yet,” says Borowski. “Investors will keep an exposure to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven.”