Warren Buffett’s always been one to keep things simple. And in a recent interview with ABC, he laid out three broad rules that individual investors should follow if they want to grow their money and keep it safe: If it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Always look at how much the other guy is making when he is trying to sell you something. Stay away from leverage. Buffett also talks about… Read More
MarketWatch.com’s Mark Hulbert reports that Dan Sullivan, whose newsletter The Chartist has been the most successful that Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over the past three decades, has moved all of his model portfolios back into cash. Back in April, Sullivan, who had presciently cashed out of stocks in January 2008, moved half the cash in his model portfolios back into stocks. In June, he put the other half into stocks, Hulbert says. But a… Read More
In a recent interview with Steve Forbes, value investor Whitney Tilson — who called the housing bust — says that he expects it will be another 12 months before the economy bottoms, but adds that he still sees plenty of opportunities in the market. Tilson says his hedge funds have scaled back their equity positions a bit but remain net long, having gone from a 100% long/50% short approach a few months back to an… Read More
In his latest column for Barron’s, Mark Hulbert warns that “a careful analysis of the bond market leads to the same conclusion as six months ago: Long-term bets in the U.S. Treasury market would certainly appear to have a low probability of success.” According to Hulbert, the current 30-year Treasury yield (4.3%) isn’t nearly high enough to compensate investors for tying up their money for 30 years. Based on Yale economist Robert Shiller’s data, long-term… Read More
In an interview with ABC, Warren Buffett discusses the state of the economy, where things are headed — and his thoughts on whether a second stimulus package is needed. Buffett also says which market index he follows most closely to get an idea of current conditions, and it’s one that might surprise you. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f98PJ5hs8Eg&hl=en&fs=1&]
Columnist and money manager John Dorfman, who called the recent upturn in the market, says he believes the rally is sustainable until at least early 2010, in large part because the economy is on the mend. “To be sure, not all signs point to the rally continuing,” Dorfman writes in the Asbury Park Press. “On balance though, I think the evidence favors continued gains, pockmarked with occasional rude interruptions.” Dorfman points to both the Conference… Read More
Several strategists who produced big returns during the downturn, including George Soros and John Paulson, are seeing tough times ahead for the economy — but opportunities in the market right now. According to The Wall Street Journal, Soros is bullish on stocks in Brazil, China, and India. Corporate profits will likely not be as high as they were during the “super bubble”, but China will partially replace the struggling U.S. consumer, he says. “China is… Read More
Newsletter guru and money manager Jim Oberweis says the strong performance of technology stocks this year isn’t a flash in the pan, but instead the start of a longer-term trend. “Part of the reason for the downfall of the tech sector was that from 1999 to 2000, stocks were valued so high that investors had priced in perfection, which is something that rarely occurs,” Oberweis tells AOL’s Daily Finance. “Over that period, we saw tech… Read More
In their “Discovering Value” column in Kiplinger’s, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say they think the strong recent market rebound is overdone, because we’re not out of the financial sector woods yet. “We think the financial system has many years of significantly higher than normal losses to work through,” the duo writes. “As the greatest bubble in history deflates, it will continue to affect the economy, corporate earnings and the stock market.”
Longtime bank analyst Richard Bove tells Forbes Intelligent Investing that the banking system is actually better than analysts or the media are indicating. “What is not being seen is the fact that banking cash flows are staggeringly positive, that banking equity is at record levels, that reserves are ultimately going to come down, driving banking profits substantially higher,” he says. “Now, it may take two, three, four quarters before we start to see that. But… Read More