Bull Runs: How they Happen

Money magazine recently offered some interesting data on the relationship between the economy and the stock market. In the chart below, you can see how the market, on average, has risen during the first year of bull markets since 1980. What’s key to note is that as the market starts its rise — and, in fact, as it gets well into its rise — the economy typically is far from sparkling. “History shows that bull… Read More

The Wisdom of Lynch & Templeton

Here’s an oldie but a very, very goodie — a Louis Rukeyser interview with Peter Lynch and the late John Templeton. The exact date of the video (posted on YouTube by ValueInvestingPro) isn’t given, but the references to the troubles in Kuwait and Lynch’s retirement make it clear the interview took place in the latter part of 1990 or the beginning of 1991. Lynch and Templeton cover a variety of topics — from the efficient… Read More

Forester Says We’ve Seen the Bottom

Tom Forester, whose Forester Value was the only stock mutual fund to end 2008 in the black, says he believes the market has bottomed, but that stocks are now in a trading range. “I do think it has bottomed,” Forester tells the Nightly Business Report. “But I also think we’re in a trading range. We could go up 20 or down 20 from here. … I think if you’re a longer-term holder, in the three-… Read More

The Little-Known Shipping Metric

Time magazine recently had a piece on “the least known key economic indicator” — the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI, which is a measure of worldwide shipping rates, has “registered some eye-popping gains over the past month,” Time’s Jeff Israely writes. “The London-based index registered its 23rd straight daily gain on Wednesday, closing at 4,291, its highest mark since September and the longest streak of gains since July 2006.” Daily rates for large “Capesize” ships… Read More

Buffett, Berkshire on Bond Binge

Back in October, Warren Buffett told the world that he was buying American equities in his personal (non-Berkshire Hathaway) account, which previously had been filled with only U.S. government bonds. But for Berkshire, on the other hand, it seems Buffett’s been focused elsewhere: municipal bonds. According to Bloomberg News, Berkshire has doubled its stake in municipal bonds over a recent nine-month period, upping the amount of local government debt it owned to just over  $4… Read More

Fisher on the Dem Bounce

In his latest Forbes column, Kenneth Fisher offers one interesting reason why he thinks stocks are a good bet to end the year in positive territory. According to Fisher, since 1926, the market has posted double-digit gains in the first year of a new Democratic president’s tenure five out of six times. Conversely, the market has been negative in the first year of a Republican president’s tenure five of six times. It may sound like… Read More

Rodriguez Bullish on Energy Stocks — Not So Bullish on Economy

Bob Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors sees continued tough times for the economy, but that doesn’t mean he’s staying on the sidelines. In an interview with Morningstar, Rodriguez discusses his firm’s big recent push into energy stocks. A number of factors — very low valuations, the fact that the world is consuming three times as much oil as it is finding, and the huge amounts of cash energy firms were able to generate in the… Read More

Sonders Envisions the Recovery, Warns about Emotional Investing

In the latest installment of Forbes’ Intelligent Investing, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders talks about the state of the credit markets and economy, the impact of emotion on investors, and the futility of trying to pick the tops and bottoms of markets. “I do think what we’re going to see, and we may be starting to see it right now, is that production pop,” Sonders said of the economy. “That coiled spring,… Read More

Small-Cap Value to Lead During Recovery? A Few To Watch

While it is of course no guarantee, a number of top economists and strategists are now predicting that the U.S. will begin to see economic growth in the latter part of this year. That begs the question: Which types of stocks perform better coming out of recessions? In a new research report, Russell Investments examines that issue and finds that, if history is a guide, you can expect small-cap value stocks to lead the way… Read More

Kass Sees Big Opportunities in Big Banks, “Bumpy Road” for Broader Market

Back in March, we highlighted the bottom call and bullish turn made by TheStreet.com columnist, money manager, and longtime bear Doug Kass. Today, Kass tells Yahoo! TechTicker that he thinks many big bank stocks could double or triple over the next few years, though he expects a bumpy road ahead for the broader market. The key for banks, Kass says, is that the spread on the interest rates at which they lend out money and… Read More