Arnott: Value Stocks Priced at or below Depression Levels

Researcher and money manager Rob Arnott has made a lot of headlines lately with his focus on the bond market, but in yesterday’s Financial Times he keyed in on another asset class — and it’s one that he says is extremely cheap right now: deep value stocks. “Most investors,” writes Arnott, “do not yet realise that today’s spread between growth and value, on most measures, is nearly as wide as it was at the peak… Read More

Tilson, Heins, and Recency Bias

How did so many investors and analysts fail to recognize the looming economic and stock market crises in recent years? In their latest Forbes column, Whitney Tilson and John Heins say that “recency bias” is a big reason — and a major challenge facing all investors. “One of the more insidious investor biases is a natural tendency to assume that the future will look like the recent past,” write Tilson and Heins in explaining recency… Read More

Barron’s Top Advisors

Barron’s has unveiled its annual “Top 100 Financial Advisors” feature, with the new #1 being Gregory Vaughan of Morgan Stanley in Menlo Park, California — and the theme of the article being how these advisors are rethinking their approaches given the recent market meltdown. The top advisors “are giving diversification a thorough rethinking,” Barron’s Suzanne McGee writes. “It’s not as simple as owning a bunch of different investments. For example, there’s ‘tactical diversification,’ or moving… Read More

Biggs vs. Mauldin: Will The Rally Hold?

The big question in the market these days is, of course, whether the current rally is really the start of a new bull run, or if it is another bear market head fake. And two interesting, differing takes on the topic come from top strategists Barton Biggs and John Mauldin. In a recent CNBC interview, hedge fund star Biggs says the rally could well be for real. As of mid-April, he saw 40 signs that… Read More

Risk and Asset Allocation

In a piece written for Forbes’ Intelligent Investing section, David Serchuk today offers some interesting data on risk and portfolio management. One point made by several of those Serchuk interviewed is that asset allocation is a crucial, and often overlooked, key to managing risk. “The macro-picture here is that asset allocation remains an easy way to get to the core of your portfolio’s risk exposure, even though it gets relatively little attention in the financial… Read More

S&P’s Stovall: Retest in the Works

Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor’s chief investment strategist, offered some interesting data on whether this rally is for real in an interview with CNBC today. Stovall — who said back in March that the S&P 500 could rally 22 percent over the short term based on historical trends — says the market is due for a retest. “If history repeats itself, we would probably go through a retest,” he said. “We’re just at the beginning… Read More

After Successful Short Plays in ’08, Leuthold Now Bullish on U.S. Stocks

Another top strategist who made a bundle by shorting stocks in 2008 is now predicting big gains for U.S. equities in the near future. Steve Leuthold, manager of the Grizzly Short Fund, told Bloomberg recently that he thinks the S&P 500 will reach 1,100 by year-end. “This market was about as cheap as I’ve seen in my 45 years in this business,” said Leuthold, whose fund gained 74% last year as the markets tanked. “We’re… Read More

Forester Sounding Bullish

Tom Forester — whose Forester Value Fund was the lone stock fund to make money in 2008 — tells MarketWatch that he’s now only holding a small portion of his portfolio in cash, has dropped his hedge positions, and sees more upside than downside in the market for the next three to five years. “It has certainly helped the fund’s performance that this self-proclaimed ‘low P/E buyer’ has no qualms about moving heavily into cash,… Read More

A History of Resilience

The economic news has offered some rays of hope in the past few weeks — surprisingly good bank earnings, unemployment declines, improved capital-raising conditions for corporations — and the markets have responded. Whether the next few weeks will provide the same hopeful signals, however, remains to be seen. But whatever the short term brings, the U.S. will recover from the current crisis and move on to new heights — that’s one of the key issues… Read More

Rogers: Diversification “A Scam”

Commodities guru Jim Rogers offers his take on the current state of the economy and stock market in an interview with BusinessWeek, saying that diversification is “a scam”, that the U.S. might be better off letting a couple big institutions fail now, and that commodities are the place to be — whether the world economy revives or not “Diversification,” Rogers says, “is something that stock brokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t… Read More