A study conducted by Czechoslovakian investment firm AKRO Investiční společnost has found that research analyst predictions based on current performance data are more accurate than those made by management teams. This according to a recent article in Enterprising Investor.
The research examined analyst predictions for companies in the Nikkei 225 –which are unique in that they provide updated management forecasts each time quarterly results are released–over the 11-year period between 2006 and 2016. Findings showed that the analysts were “closer 57% of the time compared to management at 39%.”
The article explains that these findings “call into question the widespread use of standard consensus forecasts” and underscore the need for investors to use the most up-to-date information available when evaluating a company. “In other words, the timeliness of forecasts is more important than the inclusion of a large number of forecasts.” The article also suggests that research has the potential to “add value when applied to neglected stocks with no recent broker estimates.”
“At a time when active management is the recipient of an ample share of bad press and many research departments are being downsized, these results should stand as a compelling counterpoint.”