Byron Wien’s Outlook on the Markets, the Economy, the Election and More

With so many forces at work in the markets and the global economy, there is a lot of uncertainty simmering on many levels. In a Barron’s article from earlier this month, Blackstone strategist Byron Wien offers some insight on the causes and potential outcomes: Corporate operating margins have been compressed due to limited volume growth and rising wages. Wien expects this to continue into next year. He doesn’t see a severe sell-off or bear market… Read More

Wall Street Strategists Lukewarm on the Market

Although stocks have nearly recovered from the post-Brexit upset, there is still worry about the political and economic uncertainty that looms in its wake. Earlier this month, Steve Russolillo of The Wall Street Journal wrote that eighteen equity strategists tracked by the research firm Birinyi Associates anticipate the S&P 500 (which gained 2.7% in the first half of 2016) will end the year at around 2150 (down from their previous forecast of 2200). The index… Read More

Jeremy Grantham’s Outlook for 2016 and Beyond

Jeremy Grantham authored a piece for Barron’s recently in which he argues that “the positive effects of low resource prices are underestimated,” maintains that we are not in a bubble and thus “a major market break [is] unlikely” to occur yet,  and suggests that the longer-term forecast is “rather depressing.” Looking back at 2015, Grantham highlights “the big positive” of Federal Reserve support and “the big negative” of “China slowing down,” as well as “the… Read More

No Time to be a “Hero” says DoubleLine’s Gundlach

Advisor Perspectives reports on a recent market outlook presentation by Jeffrey Gundlach, who it describes as a “prescient and accurate forecaster.” Gundlach said: “Now is not the time to be a hero,” reasoning, “this is a market where you don’t make a lot of money. You try to protect your capital and then play another day.” He said “the centerpiece of the problem that is facing the markets today” is that large developed economies will… Read More

The Year Ahead: “We Have No Idea,” Says Recent Analysis

A recent report on the market year ahead began, “We have no idea.” Authored by Paul Hickey, Justin Walters, and George Pearkes, the report published by Bespoke Investment Group describes trying to “look out one year from now and tell people what the market will or will not do” as “a fool’s errand”. The New York Times summarizes: “what is likely, if not absolutely certain, is that the Wall Street consensus will be wrong.” The… Read More

Byron Wien 10 “Surprises” for 2016 – Clinton Takes Presidency & Markets End the Year Down

  Byron Wien of Blackstone provided his annual list of  “10 surprises” predicted for the new year, defining “surprise” as an event most see as having less than a 33% chance of happening but which he believes have a 50% or greater chance of occurrence,. Here is a summary of his list:   Hillary Clinton will be elected and Democrats will take the Senate U.S. equity markets will have a down year The Fed will… Read More

Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass Predicts Oil Reversing from Surplus to Deficit in 2016

Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, predicts that current oversupply of oil will “go from a glut to a sudden deficit” in 2016. “If you’re going to allocate capital for the next three to five years,” he says, “you should do it now.” He predicts that U.S. oil output, for example, will fall by 1 million barrels per day over the coming year. Bass may be worth listening to, considering he was one of… Read More

Nuveen’s Doll Optimistic for 2016

Bob Doll of Nuveen presents an optimistic picture of 2016, according to MarketWatch. Doll says, “My view is oil is going to stabilize at a low level, and we will see some of the consumer dividend get spent next year.” He continued: “So, the consumer’s going to be a bit better, oil’s going to be less of a headwind, so we’re going to be OK.” At the same time, Doll predicts that 2016 will be… Read More

Jeremey Siegel’s Market View for 2016

Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and senior investment advisor with Wisdom Tree Funds, offers his 2016 forecast in an interview appearing in Advisor Perspectives. Commenting on the current situation, he noted: “I have never seen a shortfall of earnings relative to estimates as sharp as we had this year. We had a total collapse in earnings.” Pointing to the energy sector he said: “no one thought… Read More

Leading Fund Managers Offer Bullish and Bearish Predictions

  Financial Advisor magazine offers up brief predictions by some top fund managers.  Ruchir Sharma, of Morgan Stanely, says “We are now just one big shock away from a global downturn, and the next one seems most likely to originate in China.” Yang Zhao, chief economist with Nomura Holdings, seems to disagree: “Is there going to be a hard landing in China? I don’t think so. . . . Should any systemically important financial institutions… Read More