As the S&P continues to hover at record high levels, the question remains as to how long it can continue. In a recent article for Forbes, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, outlines what he sees as five potential market scenarios down the road: Secular stagnation: The status quo—”a continuation of the slow-growth, low-inflation regime that has been in place since the global financial crisis ended.” Deglobalization: Post-Brexit, Timmer sees potential for… Read More
Deflationary pressures have been at work in the US for some time now, part of why the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates so low. And Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius says the Internet is to blame.
Top strategist Kenneth Fisher says that he is keen on European stocks because of “false fears” in the region, while he is down on Japanese stocks because of “false hopes” there.
Kenneth Fisher says to ignore those who are saying we are headed for a stock-crushing deflationary environment.
While gold has tumbled in the past couple days, Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report says he thinks “the bull market in gold is not completed,” and that a major low will occur for gold in the next couple weeks. Faber tells Bloomberg that he thinks gold fundamentals are still intact, and that the recent breakdown “will offer an excellent buying opportunity”. He says traders would be wise to buy gold now because… Read More
Highly-rated strategist Francois Trahan says that “deflation” is not a dirty word, and that the Federal Reserve could help the economy by allowing deflation to stem commodity price inflation that is “eroding people’s pockets”. Trahan says Fed members and other policymakers and economists are relying on economic principles that aren’t relevant right now. Three main things are making the economy fundamentally different today than it was years ago, he says: consumers are deleveraging; governments are… Read More
While many investors are fearing that the U.S. will slide into a lengthy deflationary spiral similar to that which Japan has endured, top value manager Whitney Tilson says that is unlikely. Tilson offers Business Insider three reasons that the odds of the U.S. entering such a period are less than 5%: Compared to the size of the country, Japan’s bubble was much bigger than the U.S.’s; The U.S. is more “vibrant” economically than Japan; The… Read More
While many investors and commentators have raised fears of deflation recently, Rob Arnott of PIMCO and Research Affiliates still has his eye on potential inflation — and the opportunities it could present for investors. Arnott tells the Los Angeles Times that concerns about deflation could actually end up resulting in inflation. He thinks deflation fears will soon mushroom, the Times reports, and as federal stimulus spending winds down he sees a “pretty good likelihood of… Read More
Would deflation be bad for stocks? Many investors appear to think so, judging from the market’s recent hiccups after signs that deflation could be rearing its head. But MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert says that might not be the case — particularly for certain types of stocks. In his most recent column, Hulbert says Ned Davis Research’s Senior Sector Strategist, Lance Stonecypher, offers some interesting data on how deflation has historically affected different types of stocks. “Perhaps… Read More