Jack Bogle on Indexing: “Math is Math”

Back in 1976 when John “Jack” Bogle started the first index fund, his goal was to “capture the overall market’s return at much lower costs than the stock picking fund managers who so often failed to match it,” writes Bloomberg’s Michael Regan in a recent interview with the octogenarian and retired head of Vanguard. The lengthy conversation covers a wealth of topics including these highlights regarding index investing: While Bogle acknowledges that there are plenty of… Read More

Zweig on the Impact of Index Funds

Last month marked the fortieth birthday of the first index fund (launched by John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group) and the anniversary has triggered a lot of discussion and reflection on the trajectory this class of funds has traveled since. Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal shares some thoughts on the subject and how the phrase “too much of a good thing” could apply. Zweig reports that over the past year $409 billion… Read More

Jack Bogle on the Future of Index Investing

When Jack Bogle created the first index mutual fund for individual investors (Vanguard 500) forty years ago, he probably didn’t imagine that it would grow to 20 million investor-clients and more than $3 trillion. In last week’s Wall Street Journal, columnist Holman Jenkins, Jr. shares some of Bogle’s insights and opinions as he marks his 65th year as an industry leader. The 87 year-old visionary sees the appeal of index funds only magnifying given “the… Read More

Bogle: No Stock Pickers in What Looks Like an Expensive Market

Jack Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, tells CNBC that “there is no such thing as a stock picker’s market.” He goes on to say that the phrase, “a stock picker’s market is meaningless” but catches on and gets investors’ attention. Bogle, who is best known for popularizing passive, low-fee index investing, goes on to say that the stock market returns will likely be lower over the next ten years vs. what they have been… Read More

Jack Bogle’s Advice for the Individual Investor

The AAII Journal published an interview with Vanguard founder John “Jack” Bogle, to whom AAII gave its Cloonan Award for Excellence in Investment Education in 2015. The interview focuses on advice for the individual investor. Bogle said, “by far the best way to own equities is to own them through either a Standard & Poor’s 500 index fund or a total U.S. stock market index fund” and that an investor should “hold it forever.” He… Read More

Bogle’s Straightforward Formula for Estimating Future Stock Price Returns

The Wall Street Journal’s Money Beat column highlights the value of simplicity in investment prediction models. Profiling work by John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, that draws on historical data, the piece highlights his three-factor formula for determining the “sources of return.” These are: Starting yield (annual dividends divided by stock price) Earnings growth Speculative return (changes in pricing by investors) The first two factors can be grouped together, according to Bogle, as “investment… Read More

John Bogle Suggests Low Returns Likely Over the Next Decade

John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, has a pessimistic prediction for markets over the next decade. He says that he divides his expected return forecast into two segments: investment return and speculative return. For the first, he combines 2% dividend yield with estimated earnings growth of 6% to reach a total of 8%. However, his speculative return number then incorporates predictions about the price-to-earnings ratio, which he expects to fall from an estimated 20 times… Read More

John Bogle Suggest Low Returns Likely Over the Next Decade

John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, has a pessimistic prediction for markets over the next decade. He says that he divides his expected return forecast into two segments: investment return and speculative return. For the first, he combines 2% dividend yield with estimated earnings growth of 6% to reach a total of 8%. However, his speculative return number then incorporates predictions about the price-to-earnings ratio, which he expects to fall from an estimated 20 times… Read More

Jack Bogle’s Personal Portfolio is “Simple,” Consists Entirely of U.S. Stocks and Bonds

Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, has maintained a very simple personal investment strategy for many years: 60% U.S. stocks, 40% U.S. bonds. Now age 84, he has recently shifted to a 50/50 portfolio mix, explaining “I just like the idea of having an anchor to the windward,” and, “I’m not so much worried about having my portfolio grow.” Bogle’s approach is based on a few broad principles. Research tends to support his view that… Read More