As Liz Ann Sonders notes in the posting below, a lot of investors are now wondering whether it’s too late to jump into the market, or, for those who have been in the market during the rally, whether it’s time to cash out. As Sonders says, such all or nothing decisions are very dangerous — and The Stingy Investor’s Norm Rothery has laid out some excellent reasons why. In an article titled “Tempting Temptation” (originally… Read More
Last month, we highlighted Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig’s criticism of the long-term stock return data that Jeremy Siegel has used in his book, Stocks for the Long Run. Zweig said that the data Siegel used for 1802-1870 was “rotten with methodological flaws”, saying it was cherry-picked, filled with survivorship bias, and included an estimated dividend yield that was likely too high. The criticism was big news — Siegel’s book is something of a… Read More
The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig is taking Jeremy Siegel to task for the data Siegel uses in his Stocks for the Long Run, an often quoted resource for buy-and-hold investors. Siegel’s book tracks stock returns back more than 200 years, to 1802, and shows how stocks have shown a remarkable tendency to revert back to real (after-inflation) returns of 7% annually throughout those two-plus centuries. But, writes Zweig, “There is just one problem with… Read More
Writing sixty years to the day after Benjamin Graham’s classic The Intelligent Investor was published, Jason Zweig says that Graham would be cautious amid a market like this one. “Today the market seems to be in just the kind of mood that would have worried Mr. Graham: a jittery optimism, an insecure and almost desperate need to believe that the worst is over,” writes Zweig, whose commentary accompanied the 2003 version of Graham’s famous book.… Read More
Nature vs. nurture — it’s an eternal debate, and, as Jason Zweig shows in his most recent Wall Street Journal column, scientific research shows it’s a question that can have a great deal of impact on your investment style and decisions. Zweig writes that he recently volunteered as a guinea pig in Dr. Ahmad Hariri’s lab at the University of Pittsburgh, undergoing several different DNA analyses and brain scans. Hariri’s tests measure a variety of… Read More
Jason Zweig unveils some great research in his latest piece for The Wall Street Journal (“Why Market Forecasts Keep Missing The Mark”). With all sorts of pundits making predictions for where the market will head in 2009, Zweig says you should be skeptical of their forecasts — and your own — a notion that I also examine in detail in my new book, The Guru Investor. Says Zweig, “Nearly all of us try forecasting the… Read More
The CFA Institute held its Global Financial Crisis Roundtable Thursday, with institutional expert Theodore Aronson, Goldman Sachs’ Abby Joseph Cohen, bond expert Martin Fridson, and economist Jason Trennert speaking in a panel discussion moderated by The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig. U.S. News & World Report’s Kirk Shinkle offers the following observations from the hour-plus discussion: “Cohen made it clear she thinks that many (though not all) markets have fallen enough to make new opportunities… Read More
Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig makes the current case for the individual investor, and highlights the vast array of asset classes that are presenting very attractive values. While stocks are cheap, other areas such as corporate and municipal bonds, emerging markets, TIPS, real estate and closed-end funds are also so beaten up that opportunities abound.