Bill Gross Had the Right Idea

An article in Bloomberg by columnist Nir Kaissar offers insights on the career of “hall-of-fame” bond manager Bill Gross, who announced his retirement earlier this year after what the press hailed as a “messy last act” as manager of the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund (since 2014).” “Gross made some big bets at Janus Henderson that didn’t pay off,” writes Kaissar, who adds that even though things didn’t go the way the manager would… Read More

The Inversion Worth Worrying About

In a December article for Bloomberg, columnist Nir Kaissar argues that, albeit troubling, all the hype about a potential yield curve inversion is “overdone, at least so far.” Instead, he asserts, investors should be watching the difference between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on cash, because, “when the earnings yield has dipped below the cash yield in the past, stocks were in for a rough ride.” Kaissar cites the first such recorded… Read More

Corporate Debt and the Next Recession

A recent Bloomberg article features a debate between columnists Nir Kaissar and Noah Smith on whether U.S. companies have accumulated too much debt and whether it represents a risk to the economy. Here are some highlights: According to Smith, Bloomberg News data showed that “a lot of companies are so leveraged that they would have a junk label if credit raters weren’t being lenient.” “I don’t see much in companies’ financial statements to be alarmed… Read More

Yale’s Social Investing Needs Clarity

According to an article in Bloomberg by columnist Nir Kaissar, Yale University recently announced that its $29.4 billion endowment could exit private investments it “deems unethical, extending a policy it has long applied to investments in public markets.” But the article argues that the attention garnered by sustainable investing “hasn’t yet translated into investment,” at least as measure by the flow of funds into ETFs: The industry, writes Kaissar, has a basic problem: “Investors are… Read More

Bull Market Money Managers: Clients or Convictions?

In an article for Bloomberg, columnist Nir Kaissar discusses the quandary faced by many money managers who have seen the S&P 500 outperform other investments over the last decade. “No diversified portfolio has any hope of keeping up with the market, not even those belonging to elite universities,” writes Kaissar, adding, “Most stock pickers can’t keep up, either.” Therein lies the quandary, he asserts, since U.S. investors “care a lot about keeping up with the… Read More

Value Versus Growth in Emerging Markets

“Emerging markets are flashing warning signs, but don’t tell that to value stocks,” writes Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar, who adds, “To some investors’ surprise, value stocks are holding up better than growth.”   Theoretically, Kaissar explains, that’s not supposed to happen. “Value stocks, after all, are cheaper than growth for a reason: They represent companies, and sometimes whole sectors, that have fallen on hard times or are struggling to grow.” But in reality, he says,… Read More

Are the FAANGs Really a Supergroup?

Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet “can’t get away from each other,” says an article last month by Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar, who argues, “But look closely and it’s no longer clear why they should be lumped together at all.” For example, Kaissar points out, the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) classifies neither Amazon nor Netflix as tech companies–but rather tags Amazon as a retailer and Netflix as an entertainment company. As of… Read More

Emerging Markets Reflect Investor Fear

Emerging market stocks are “taking the brunt of investors’ fears,” writes Nir Kaissar in a Bloomberg article last month, noting a drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index on a year-to-date basis against S&P 500 gains. Bloomberg conducted a survey of 20 investors, traders and strategists regarding what they think are the biggest drivers for EM. The top responses included: Fed rate outlook, trade conflicts, EM central bank outlook, China, oil and commodity prices, and local… Read More

Harvard and Yale’s Investing Models Should be Available to Every Investor

In a recent article, Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar argued that although it’s time to change the securities laws that prevent people from investing like the elite university endowments, there are questions as to whether such strategies are worth pursuing. Kaissar offers data from the National Association of College and University Business Officers showing that, over the last 30 years, universities with the largest endowments only narrowly outperformed the S&P 500, generating returns of 9.7% compared… Read More

Stock Swings and Earnings

A recent article by Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar discusses the market’s increased volatility within the context of earnings. “More than a century of data,” he writes, “show that declines in the equity market most often precede slumps in earnings rather than the other way around.” Kaissar points out that although “companies are awash in profits” and Wall Street analysts lean on strong business fundamentals as comfort in the face of volatility, “fundamentals have little to… Read More