Short-Term Opportunities, Long-Term Questions

After the huge rally in stocks over the past six months, the big question for investors is, can it continue? Fortune recently posed that question to several successful strategists, and got some encouraging answers — at least regarding the short term. After that, the waters may get choppy. “Despite some big worries about 2010, most expect the combination of market momentum and government stimulus spending to carry stocks higher for the rest of this year,”… Read More

Shiller: The Recovery’s in Our Minds, Not Our Metrics

Unemployment, GDP, manufacturing statistics — what’s the best way to tell that we’re headed into an economic recovery? According to Yale economist Robert Shiller, the answer might lie less in the metrics we use to measure economic production than it is in our own minds. In a New York Times column, Shiller says that supposedly key economic indicators like unemployment or retail sales figures aren’t causes of a recovery, but symptoms of one. “For a… Read More

Has Housing Bottomed? Shiller Weighs In

Yale economist and Case-Shiller housing price index co-founder Robert Shiller talks with Bloomberg News about the current housing market, and the impact of psychology and emotion on home purchases. He says “confidence is tentatively back” in the housing market, and talks about whether last month’s increase in his housing index indicates we’ve hit a bottom. In addition, Shiller also gives his take on what the economic recovery will look like. [youtube=]

“Green Shoots” Talk Overdone — Stimulus Underdone, Says Shiller

In an interview with CNBC’s India affiliate, Yale economist Robert Shiller says that governments across the world should be focused on greater economic stimulus — and put concerns about rising national debts and potential inflation on the back-burner — in order to capitalize on the recent jump in confidence. Shiller says that the recent rise in confidence has not been accompanied by true improvement in the economy, and that there’s a chance that confidence could… Read More

10-Year P/E: Stocks at Fair Value

After years of being overvalued by one of the tougher value metrics — the 10-year P/E ratio made famous by Yale economist Robert Shiller — stocks finally appeared undervalued a few few months back. Now, with stocks having surged some 35% in the past three-plus months, the broader market is back up to “fair value” levels according to the Shiller P/E, The Business Insider’s Henry Blodget reports. “The market’s [10-year] PE right now is about… Read More

Shiller: Be in Stocks & Real Estate, Despite Risks

Yale economist and housing-bust-predictor Robert Shiller says that, while housing and stock prices could well go lower in the short term, now is a good time for investors to be in both equities and real estate. “I’m less pessimistic than I was a few months ago,” Shiller told Bloomberg when asked about stocks. “The price-earnings ratio is about average, and by that you might say it sounds like one should be in the market and… Read More

The Great Depression “25-Year Recovery” Myth

If you’re worried about stocks taking a period of many, many years to recover following the recent market plunge, Mark Hulbert offers some insightful — and encouraging — news in The New York Times. While many have cited the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average took 25 years to get back to its pre-Great-Depression highs as reason to worry that the coming market recovery could take a upwards of 10 or even 20 years,… Read More

Shiller: It’s The Psychology, Stupid

Don’t underestimate the impact psychology has on the stock market and economy — that’s the message Yale economist and housing crisis predictor Robert Shiller recently gave during a lecture at The New School, the video of which is now available on “Psychology really matters,” said Shiller, whose new book, Animal Spirits, co-written with George A. Akerlof, delves into the psychology of markets. “Our theory is that animal spirits is what substantially drives economies,” Shiller… Read More

Want to Avoid Another Depression: Stop Talking About It

They say that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. But, when it comes to the “Great Depression” comparisons now springing up amid this terrible economic climate, an equally fitting adage might be that those who dwell too much on history are doomed to repeat it — that’s essentially what Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who predicted the housing bust and much of the current financial crisis, says. “The attention… Read More

They Saw The Trouble Coming — And Some See More Ahead

Kiplinger’s takes a look this week at nine people who “called it right” in predicting the credit crisis and market collapse, and asks what they see coming for the year ahead. Some — like Jeremy Grantham, Robert Rodriguez, and Nouriel Roubini — are people whose opinions we’ve detailed in past posts, but here’s a look at the predictions (most of which have to do with the economy, not the stock market) for some of the… Read More