How Long is Long Term in Investing?

By Justin J. Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) —  As investors, we are taught to try and think long term. The story goes something like this — invest in stocks, stay disciplined and patient and let your money compound over many years or even decades and you can growth your wealth. I strongly believe in that story, but the reality is for many investors the definition of “long-term” becomes too narrow and time focused. When thinking about long… Read More

Are Value Stocks Poised for Growth?

Value investing has fallen on tough times, and is “getting tiresome even for those famous for their patience,” according to a recent Barron’s article. On the face of it, value investing should work, the article argues. “At its most basic, it’s buying stocks that are cheap and holding them until the rest of the market realizes these great companies are selling at a bargain price, and pile in, driving prices up.” But since 2006, it… Read More

Some Ideas for Investing in a Low Return Environment

There is a very strong likelihood that returns for investors over the next decade will be significantly lower than what we have seen in the past ten years. With the trailing ten-year return of the S&P 500 at around 10% and the ten-year return of a 50-50 stock and bond portfolio at a little less than 7%, investors have become accustomed to above average returns. But long-term data indicates that these ultra-strong returns are very… Read More

Aiming for Private Equity-Like Returns Using a Small Cap Value Quant Strategy

By Justin J. Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) —  “I do not like debt and do not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt. With long-term debt, increases in interest rates can drastically affect company profits and make future cash flows less predictable.” — Warren Buffett Of the twelve quantitative models we run publicly on Validea, nine of them look at a company’s level of debt in their assessment of a firm’s… Read More

The Case for Value Stocks

By Jack Forehand, CFA (@practicalquant) —  Value stocks have lost their mojo. After an extended period from 2000 to 2007 where they outperformed growth stocks by a wide margin, they are now in one of their longest periods of underperformance ever. The below chart shows the iShares Core US Growth ETF against the iShares Core US Value ETF from 2007 to the present. As you can see, growth has outperformed value by almost 3 to… Read More

The Realities of Mean Reversion

By Jack Forehand, CFA (@practicalquant)  “Importantly, reversion to the mean in the investment business extends well beyond the results for mutual funds. It applies to classifications within the market (small capitalization versus large capitalization, or value versus growth), across asset classes (bonds versus stocks) and spans geographic boundaries (U.S. versus non-U.S.). There are few corners of the investment business where reversion to the mean does not hold sway.” – Michael Mauboussin Mean reversion is one of… Read More

Value Stock Outperformance Could be Temporary

The recent outperformance of value shares over growth, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal, will be a short-lived trend. The rise in bank stocks and dip in tech stocks led many to believe that the tax reform package was rewarding the Wall Street elite while punishing Silicon Valley investors. However, the article argues, “Under the surface there are two much deeper changes under way, and the important question is whether the tax… Read More

Validea Gets Under the Hood: P/E Ratios

By Justin J. Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) —  In our book, “The Guru Investor: How to Beat the Market Using History’s Best Investment Strategies”, we called Benjamin Graham the “Granddaddy of the Gurus” given his track record and influence on other value investors, including Warren Buffett, Mario Gabelli and many others. If Graham was the Granddaddy of the Gurus then I think the Price-to-Earnings ratio (or P/E for short), a ratio utilized by Graham, is probably the… Read More

Value Investing Performance Varies Depending on Measure

If you gauge value investing by evaluating “a portfolio that buys cheap stocks based on price-to-book ratios,” it hasn’t done too well over the past decade, according to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal written by Wes Gray, CEO and CIO of Alpha Architect, a quantitative asset manager based near Philadelphia.   The article offers the example in which a “generic portfolio of the cheapest stocks (labeled ‘Generic Value (P/B)’ based on price-book ratios… Read More

Stocks that Could Appeal to the Value Investor

In a recent article for The Globe and Mail, Validea CEO John Reese discusses the hefty divergence between growth and value stock performance so far this year and offers insights as to the various factors at play. He references the current market’s stretched valuations, noting that “it may be hard to see value” given that the market multiple is above its historical average. “But remember,” he argues, “a big driver of that is the overweighting… Read More