Tom Forester, whose Forester Value Fund was the lone diversified stock fund to make money in 2008, is taking profits on some of his 2009 winners, but thinks third-quarter earnings season should be pretty solid because of the government’s massive stimulus efforts.

According to Investment News, Forester — whose fund is lagging the S&P this year (it’s up 11.65% vs. 18.52% for the index) — is cautiously optimistic heading into the fourth quarter. “Right now I’m feeling that the market is getting a little top-heavy, and I have already taken some beta out from some of the industrial names,” he said.

While many are now focused on third-quarter earnings reports, Forester says the bigger question will be how fourth-quarter earnings will turn out. “I think third-quarter earnings will be good because there has been a lot of stimulus,” he said. “But the question will be whether we can continue as these stimulus programs run off, because investors are already baking in better numbers for the fourth quarter.”

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