Extreme pessimism is usually an indication that the market is hitting bottom, and this current bear market is not there yet, contends an article in MarketWatch. While it feels like there is a lot of negative sentiment on Wall Street right now, the market could still rally at any moment.
But two measures of stock market sentiment analyzed in the article—the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index and the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index—have failed to fall into the bottom 10% of their distributions and stay there for longer than a day or two. Looking at the number of trading days within a trailing month of both these indexes falling into their respective bottoms, it stands at 23.8%—far below the level of previous market bottoms such as 2007-09 when it hit 81%.
Likewise, many analysts don’t believe capitulation—when there’s a surge in selling pressure and many investors cave to that pressure—has occurred yet, which would indicate that the market is near its bottom. Though analysts have different criteria for defining capitulation, one such analyst, Manuel Blay of TheDowTheory.com told MarketWatch that he define it as at least 2 of the 3 market averages to falling: the Dow to fall below 28,407, the S&P 500 below 3,553, or the NYSE Composite below 13,532. And currently, those benchmarks are several percentage points higher than those numbers. No one indicator is foolproof, and while the lack of capitulation doesn’t necessarily mean this