Buffett vs. Graham vs. Lynch: Whose Strategy Wins Now & Over Time?

Buffett vs. Graham vs. Lynch: Whose Strategy Wins Now & Over Time?

When it comes to legendary investors, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, and Peter Lynch represent three of the most iconic — and distinct — approaches to stock picking. Each has inspired legions of followers, and at Validea, we’ve developed systematic models based on their published strategies and philosophies. But in today’s market, with rapidly shifting macro conditions, rising rates, and ongoing uncertainty, which approach is winning?

We dive into the numbers, examine the some of the portfolio stock selections, and offer guidance on what type of investor each strategy may suit best.

Understanding the Strategies

Warren Buffett – The Patient Quality Investor

Validea’s Buffett-inspired model focuses on durable competitive advantages, consistent earnings, and financial strength — in other words, quality and economic moats. The model looks for high return on equity, consistent and long-term profitability, share buybacks and low debt — often favoring larger, well-run companies with a long runway for growth.

  • Who it’s for: Long-term, patient investors looking for high-quality businesses they can “own forever.”
  • Sample picks:
    • Comfort Systems USA (FIX): +35.6% since added
    • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): +27.9%
    • Kinsale Capital (KNSL): +21.0%

Benjamin Graham – The Deep Value Purist

Graham’s approach, considered the bedrock of value investing, focuses on balance sheet strength and low valuation. The Validea Graham model seeks low P/E, low P/B, manageable debt levels, and strong current ratios. These are companies trading at a deep discount that may be at or near what Graham called a “margin of safety”.

  • Who it’s for: Deep value investors with a contrarian mindset and a willingness to wait for mean reversion.
  • Sample picks:
    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): +65.4%
    • Steel Dynamics (STLD): +30.0%
    • Commercial Metals (CMC): +32.0%

Peter Lynch – The Growth-at-a-Reasonable-Price (GARP) Seeker

Lynch’s model blends growth and value by focusing on the PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth), favoring companies with strong earnings growth and reasonable valuations relative to that growth. It also considers factors like low debt and free cash flow.

  • Who it’s for: Investors seeking companies with clear growth prospects without paying up for hype.
  • Sample picks:
    • Heritage Insurance (HRTG): +56.0%
    • Teekay Tankers (TNK): +23.0%
    • HSBC (HSBC): +31.6%
    • NatWest (NWG): +94.4%

The Numbers: Performance Comparison

Year-to-date through mid-June, Lynch’s PEG/GARP model leads with a return of +9.5%, outpacing both the Buffett model (+2.5%) and the Graham model (+1.0%), as well as the S&P 500 (+1.6%). Over the past five years, Lynch also leads at +23.8%, compared to Graham at +17.1% and Buffett at +11.9%. And since inception, Lynch’s model has returned +12.5%, outperforming Graham (+10.8%) and Buffett (+8.8%). PEG/GARP model edge has come from his ability to balance value and growth — which has been a tailwind for the strategy over the last 10-15 years since growth oriented stocks have been rewarded more than value shares. View the model portfolios.

StrategyModel NameYTD (2025)5-Year ReturnSince InceptionInception Date
Peter LynchPE/G Investor+9.5%+23.8%+12.5%7/15/2003
Warren BuffettPatient Investor+2.5%+11.9%+8.8%12/5/2003
Benjamin GrahamValue Investor+1.0%+17.1%+10.8%7/15/2003
S&P 500 (for comparison)+1.6%+14.5%~8.4%

Strategy Matchmaker: Which Style Fits You?

Choosing the “best” investing strategy isn’t always just about performance. It’s about finding an approach that matches your personality, risk tolerance, and behavioral tendencies and time horizon. The most effective model is the one you can stick with through market cycles. Discipline matters more than precision. Even a strong strategy will fail if you abandon it during a downturn or chase something new when it lags.

The key is to pick the strategy that aligns not just with your return goals, but with how you’re wired as an investor. The longer you can stay committed to a sound approach, the more likely you are to capture its full potential.

Here’s a summary of investor types an best strategy fit across these three models.

Investor TypeBest FitWhy?
Buy-and-hold investors focused on quality and moatsBuffettGreat for those who want durable businesses and are OK with modest but consistent compounding.
Deep value seekers hunting bargainsGrahamIdeal for contrarians who trust the math and are patient enough to wait for mispriced stocks to revert.
Growth-minded investors who still value reasonable pricesLynchBest suited for investors who want growth stories without the sky-high valuations.

Final Thoughts

Looking at these approaches side by side is a valuable exercise. It reminds us that there’s no single “right” way to invest. Some models focus on quality, others on deep value, others on growth balanced with price. Each can work, depending on market conditions—and more importantly, depending on the investor using it.

The lesson isn’t to find the one model that always wins. It’s to understand the philosophy behind each approach and choose the one that fits your mindset and discipline. Consistency, not constant switching, is what unlocks the full power of any investing strategy.


Further Research

Top Warren Buffett Stocks – Validea Buffett Model

Top Benjamin Graham Stocks – Validea Graham Model

Top Peter Lynch Stocks – Validea Lynch Model

Compare All Validea Guru Models Portfolios

How Validea Builds Its Guru-Based Models & Screens