Blackstone vice chairman Byron Wien said he expects a “major comeback to new highs for the stock market in 2019” according to an article in CNBC.com.
In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Wien offered a preview of his 34th annual list of year-ahead economic, financial market and political surprises—a tradition he began in 1986 as chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Here is a summary of the list:
- A weakening world economy will encourage the Fed not to raise rates this year;
- The S&P 500 will gain 15% in 2019;
- Capital spending and housing will make only modest gains this year, but expansion will continue due to consumer and government spending;
- “The better tone in the financial markets discourages precious metal investors;”
- “The profit outlook for emerging markets brightens;”
- Wien predicts that March 29th “comes and goes and there is no Brexit deal;”
- The dollar will stabilize and remain at year-end 2018 levels and will stay there throughout the year;
- Congress will get more than expected done, especially on trade policy;
- “The Mueller investigation results in indictments against members of the Trump Organization closest to the president but the evidence doesn’t support any direct action against Trump himself.”
- Growth stocks will continue to “provide leadership in the U.S. equity market.”
“I’m optimistic,” said Wien in the interview, adding, “I think the fundamentals are sound.”