Byron Wien Predicts 15% Rally in S&P in 2019

Blackstone vice chairman Byron Wien said he expects a “major comeback to new highs for the stock market in 2019” according to an article in

In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Wien offered a preview of his 34th annual list of year-ahead economic, financial market and political surprises—a tradition he began in 1986 as chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.

Here is a summary of the list:

  1. A weakening world economy will encourage the Fed not to raise rates this year;
  2. The S&P 500 will gain 15% in 2019;
  3. Capital spending and housing will make only modest gains this year, but expansion will continue due to consumer and government spending;
  4. “The better tone in the financial markets discourages precious metal investors;”
  5. “The profit outlook for emerging markets brightens;”
  6. Wien predicts that March 29th “comes and goes and there is no Brexit deal;”
  7. The dollar will stabilize and remain at year-end 2018 levels and will stay there throughout the year;
  8. Congress will get more than expected done, especially on trade policy;
  9. “The Mueller investigation results in indictments against members of the Trump Organization closest to the president but the evidence doesn’t support any direct action against Trump himself.”
  10. Growth stocks will continue to “provide leadership in the U.S. equity market.”

“I’m optimistic,” said Wien in the interview, adding, “I think the fundamentals are sound.”