Billionaire hedge fund investor Ray Dalio says the global economy is entering a new phase where “markets won’t get the same level of support from monetary policy makers,” according to a Bloomberg article from earlier this month.
The chairman of Bridgewater Associates recently wrote that central bankers are shifting from the nine-year period of holding down interest rates and are giving clear signals that stimulus will be tapered. He notes the following:
- The Fed is “debating when in coming months to start shrinking its balance sheet” as it continues its “gradual campaign of raising rates”;
- European Central Bank officials have “stopped warning of a potential rate cut, and last month considered removing a pledge to increase bond buying if needed”;
- The Bank of Japan has scaled back its purchase of government bonds while keeping its zero percent target for 10-year yields;
- Central banks in smaller economies such as the U.K. and Canada are also “shifting gears toward raising rates or removing stimulus.”
According to the article, Dalio didn’t say how this would impact stocks, but argued that it is “the beginning of a late-cycle phase of the business/short-term debt cycle, in which central bankers try to tighten at paces that are exactly right in order to keep growth and inflation neither too hot nor too cold, until they don’t get it right and we have our next downturn.”