Hold off on dumping your high-priced growth stocks for cheaper value shares while bond yields increase, until the benchmark Treasuries yields 3%, advises an article in Bloomberg that cites research from Jim Paulsen, CIO of The Leuthold Group. Returns are more dependent on the level of bond yields than the direction they’re moving in, Paulsen wrote in a note.
As investors debated the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates in 2022, cheaper shares outperformed while growth shares led U.S. stocks to a dip in December. Despite falling to 1.41%, the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to just under 2% by the end of next year. And with value investing still an underperforming approach—aside from a brief spike a year ago—growth shares are continuing their outperformance.
But Paulsen warns investors not to go “all in” on growth stocks, and to not even overweight them, pointing to historical data from the last 70 years that shows the 10-year yield needs to double before growth stocks lose their sweet spot. “…until the 10-year yield breaches 3%,” Paulsen writes, “history strongly advises against moving too aggressively away from growth to embrace the value story fully.”