The famously bearish Jeremy Grantham warns that the stock “super bubble” that he’s previously spoken about “has yet to burst” and that when it does it will be an “epic finale,” reports Bloomberg.
The GMO co-founder sees equities, bonds and housing as all overvalued, and cautions that if we see a repeat of past bubble bursts, “the play will once again be a Tragedy,” adding that we can still “hope this time for a minor one.” But unlike many others on Wall Street, Grantham isn’t necessarily blaming the Fed for the super bubble and its impending burst. As the central bank’s pivot is factored in, equities are undergoing a re-pricing. But Grantham isn’t concerned about interest rates, according to Bloomberg; rather, he’s concerned about earnings, multiples compression, and margins getting battered—and that the market hasn’t yet grappled with any of those items yet.
Grantham’s call predicted the market being down 50% off its peak; the market hit about 25% at its June low. Grantham isn’t alone in his bearish views; Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley also posits that the markets are too optimistic, and points to earnings as the culprit as well, reports Bloomberg.
In the wake of the Fed’s pivot, the market is still contending with whether or not the other shoe has dropped, Bloomberg states. Earnings-per-share have fallen about 2%, which could indicate that if there is some further margin deterioration to come, there could still be pricing in left to do.