The upcoming presidential election is causing uneasiness, not just at the water cooler or the dinner table but also in the markets. Matt Schifrin, a managing editor of investing at Forbes, canvassed several of what he considers the “smartest market thinkers” for perspective and investment advice amidst the uncertainty.
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO, DoubleLine Capital says, “Trump is going to win, so that’s all that needs to be considered.” He believes that the “economic fearmongering” that will ensue could cause a global growth scare and a related risk-asset selloff. According to Gundlach, this will create buying opportunities in stocks and other risk assets.
Gary Shilling, President, A. Gary Shilling & Co.: If Trump wins, his “loose-cannon reputation could be negative for stocks, at least initially, because equity investors hate uncertainty.” If Clinton wins, he says to expect a continued “stock flatness”. His advice is to hold cash until “the smoke clears.”
Jim Oberweis, President, Oberweis Asset Management says, “The market expects Hillary to win.” In the event of a Trump victory, Oberweis says the real question is whether the president-elect would be able to get his protectionist ideas through Congress. If so, then it would exacerbate market volatility, and Oberweis advises buying “insurance in the form of puts on the S&P 500.”
Marilyn Cohen, CEO, Envision Capital Management says tax rates will decline in the event of a Trump victory. Further, municipal bond yields will rise as their prices decline. If Clinton wins, she predicts an increase in tax rates and a continued rally and yield decline in municipal bonds (due to high taxes). Cohen suggests keeping bond durations between 3 ½ to 5 years and steering clear of paying high premiums for any type of bond.