Quick Recovery for Stocks Most Likely

The market’s recent volatility may feel extreme, and that is because it is. According to Morningstar, there has been only five other times in history that the market has fallen 10% or more in only five trading days. All of those other times (see the chart below) are significant historical market events. Of the five other events, two of them (the 1987 Black Monday decline and the 2008 Financial Crisis) coincided with a bear market for stocks, while the other three were outside events that “shocked” the market. But the good news, says Morningstar, is that the event-based or shocks “weren’t as extreme, and the market recovered more quickly, as we can see in the next chart. It took between 40 and 62 days to recover from the event-based declines.” The article continues on to say that the “U.S. economy looks healthy, with growth of 3.7% in the second quarter. With a U.S. recession unlikely in the near term, it’s more likely that the market reaction to China was overblown, and the U.S. market will recover in a similar time frame to the other event-based declines.”

down performance

up performance