Ray Dalio on the Odds for Trade and Other Wars

A recent Bloomberg article recounted comments made my Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio on LinkedIn. Here are a few:

  • “Recent geopolitical developments have led me to raise my probabilities of trade and other types of wars, such as capital wars, cyber wars (and possibly even shooting wars).”
  • Dalio described current trade talks with China as a “public game of chicken” since President Trump “raised the stakes by another $100 billion.”
  • While he initially “thought trade tensions would subside because the Chinese are very amenable to a trade deal.”. There are “lots of ways to make a good deal happen,” said Dalio.
  • Given China’s role in financing U.S. deficits and its bond holdings, wrote Dalio, “one should consider the possibility that this trade war could also become a capital war,” adding that it would be “even uglier than a trade war.”

Dalio qualified that while he doesn’t think the current environment necessarily makes trade and “other types of wars” probable, it does increase the chances.