In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business professor Jeremy Siegel says we must listen to the 10-year Treasury note, because it looks at the “real world” and doesn’t see a slowdown in housing prices but an actual decrease. That’s something the Fed won’t be able to ignore, Siegel maintains.
While the Fed can do a lot of talking about their plans and expectations for inflation, whether or not the central bank will actually take market conditions into account remains to be seen. If they ignore the bond market it would be at their peril, CNBC contends, and that could bring about a much harder landing than they are aiming for. But the Fed is extremely “data dependent,” Siegel says, and has often made claims that haven’t come to pass, such as last year when they maintained that they wouldn’t raise the Fed funds rate more than 25 basis points in 2022. However, Siegel believes the price data will be positive this month, and while the Fed will wind up doing 50 basis points, he’s hopeful that they’ll be able to halt the rate hikes after that and that the tightening they’ve already put in place will be effective. As the markets roll into their seventh consecutive month of decline—the largest seven-month decline since World War II—Siegel says that if the Fed continues its restrictive policies through 2023, there’s no doubt that a recession will follow. But he remains hopeful that the central bank will recognize the data for what it portends, and began to loosen.