In a recent interview on a Spark Disruptors virtual panel, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates offered insights and expectations related to value investing.
Here are key takeaways from his comments:
- Citing historical analysis of value’s performance relative to price, Arnott says the linkage between the factor’s relative cheapness and performance is “really powerful.”
- “When I look at the market today, Arnott says, “I want to be a value investor.” He notes that at current price levels, investors will “deeply regret missing that [value] train once it has left the station.”
- The election outcome “doesn’t make much of a difference,” says Arnott, but adds that if both parties vote to revoke social media companies’ immunization from certain categories of litigation, it could “take a big bite out of the valuation levels of these companies.”
- Regarding the potential catalyst for a reversion to value, Arnott says it is difficult to predict, but notes, “when the rubber band gets stretched this far, the chances of it stretching further diminish more and more, and the magnitude and speed of the snapback can be shocking.”
- “The bottom line,” Arnott concludes, “is I think that this is a better time to be a value investor than any other time in my career.” He adds, “I look back at the tech bubble and I never thought I would see valuations stretched the way they were there. We’re back to that, and then some.”