Roubini Offers Good News (Sort Of)

Nouriel Roubini — the economist who predicted the economic crisis and who has been dubbed “Dr. Doom” for his dire predictions — now thinks the global recession will end later this year, significantly earlier than he has previously predicted.

“We are not yet at the bottom of the U.S. and the global recession,” Roubini told Reuters. “The contraction is still occurring and the recession is going to be over more towards the end of the year rather than in the middle of the year” as many have predicted. That might not sound very positive, but keep in mind that two months ago, Roubini said he thought the likely length of the recession (which began in December 2007) was moving toward 36 months, which would have brought us into late 2010.

To be sure, Roubini is still no optimist or bull. He thinks that post-recession U.S. economic growth “is going to be below potential for at least two years,” because of the woes in the housing sector and the financial system and serious public debt.

Roubini’s outlook for Asia was more upbeat than his outlook for Europe, Japan and the U.S. because of Asia’s stronger fundamentals, Reuters stated. “The latest economic indicators from Korea … suggest there is the beginning of an economic recovery, and growth might be already positive in the second quarter,” he said.

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *