…really the best approach? In his book The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing, author Michael Mauboussin explores the juxtaposition of luck and skill and…
Search Results for: Luck
Evaluating Luck or Skill in a Stock Picker
…if skill or luck produced the gains. The result is that the typical investor in active funds lags behind even those funds’ returns by quite a bit,” the article says,…
Ritholtz on Why We're Bad at Forecasting
…those who make accurate predictions that are nothing more than the result of luck or random chance get elevated to stardom.” Technology—Ritholtz references Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer, who predicted in 2007…
Some Thoughts On Improving the Predictive Value of Morningstar's Ratings
…Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing. The image below, which is taken from Mauboussin, paper shows “the correlations between three-year alphas for mutual funds from 2005…
Being a Successful Investor Requires Planning and Tenacity
…the experience we’ve had with our guru-inspired models, tells us that these strategies have been successful not because of luck or gimmickry. That’s not to say they are successful all…
Investors Who Dare to Be Different Stand a Better Chance for Success
…with our guru-inspired models, tells us that these strategies have been successful not because of luck or gimmickry. That’s not to say they are successful all the time. Since our…
Hulbert: Don't Chase the Winners
…Indices: Regression to the mean, Hulbert explains, is “just another way of saying that performance over a 12-month horizon is largely due to luck rather than skill.” That said, Hulbert…
Words of Wisdom from Byron Wein
…to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Read actively, all the time. Try to think of your life in phases so you can avoid a…
Beware of Rosy Stock Market Predictions
…2216, a figure hit—and passed—for the first time on Wednesday.” It argues, however, that “this year’s accuracy was a matter of luck, not a sudden improvement in the forecasting power…
Evaluating Portfolio Managers: The Luck Factor
…of Ipsol Capital. In a recent Take 15 interview for Enterprising Investor, Lussier shares his insights about the value of “factor-based benchmarks” when distinguishing effective managers from lucky ones. “Some…