Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor’s chief investment strategist, offered some interesting data on whether this rally is for real in an interview with CNBC today.
Stovall — who said back in March that the S&P 500 could rally 22 percent over the short term based on historical trends — says the market is due for a retest. “If history repeats itself, we would probably go through a retest,” he said. “We’re just at the beginning of the retest today.”
Over the years, this sort of retest has averaged about 20 days from the recovery high and involved a 7 percent decline for the market market, according to CNBC.
Stovall thinks the current indicators portend “a correction of some magnitude,” perhaps in the 14-percent-type declines that occurred in 1973-75 and 2001-2002 bear markets, CNBC reports.
CNBC says one top manager is seeing less of a pullback coming: “Hedge fund manager Doug Kass, for instance, recently told clients to expect a decline of 5-6 percent after the recent rally.”