In 2022, look for better returns in Europe and Japan, and steer clear of U.S. stocks and bonds, advises Morgan Stanley’s strategy team, according to an article in Bloomberg. Fading monetary support and high valuations are the factors the strategy team sees as holding back American assets. With lower inflationary pressures in Europe and Japan, there’s a better outlook overseas next year.
The threat of inflation looms large in market calls for 2022, and the Morgan Stanley strategists predict that global inflation will peak this quarter and then stay moderate over the next year. Fueled by stronger consumer spending and capital investment, economic recovery will continue. The Fed won’t raise interest rates until 2023, they portend, which contrasts with what some more hawkish analysts are expecting.
Above all, the strategy team urged patience, the article continues, and suggested that investors wait for the dollar to weaken before diving back into emerging market stocks and bonds. The Canadian dollar, the Norwegian krone and the yuan are all looking stable, and oil is preferable to gold on the commodity front.