Morningstar data shows that, at least for Canadian stocks, buying equities at or near their 12-month high may be a better investment than buying companies trading near their 12-month low. Testing a portfolio of the 40 Canadian stocks trading nearest their 12-month high at the beginning of each quarter produced a return more than 1,000 basis points above the benchmark. Volatility among these stocks was also significantly lower than the benchmark. The results appear to hold up over time. In 67 of 95 quarters (71%) since 1992, stocks trading near their 12-month high outperformed their benchmark. In the 64 positive market quarters during this time, the stocks beat the index 41% of the time. Perhaps most surprising, in 84% of the negative market quarters since 1992 (26 of 31), these stocks outperformed their benchmark.
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