Bridgewater’s Dalio: 2015 May Be Like 1937 for the Market

  A recent Wall Street Journal piece notes that hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio and others have discussed potentially significant parallels between 1937 and 2015.  Dalio, in a March letter earlier this year, identified the following comparable timeline: Debt limits reached at “the bubble top” in 1929 and in 2007; Interest rates fall to zero in 1931 and 2008; Money printing begins a “beautiful deleveraging” in 1933 and 2009; Stocks and “risky assets” rally in 1933-36… Read More

The Great Depression “25-Year Recovery” Myth

If you’re worried about stocks taking a period of many, many years to recover following the recent market plunge, Mark Hulbert offers some insightful — and encouraging — news in The New York Times. While many have cited the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average took 25 years to get back to its pre-Great-Depression highs as reason to worry that the coming market recovery could take a upwards of 10 or even 20 years,… Read More

A “Superinvestor” and Other Depression Survivors Weigh In

Very interesting piece from SmartMoney’s Reshma Kapadia in the magazine’s new May issue. (It doesn’t appear to be available online yet; when it is, we’ll add the link). With all the recent talk about whether the U.S. is headed into — or is already in — a depression, Kapadia interviewed three money managers who actually lived through the Great Depression, getting their insights about how it felt living through that terrible period, and what they… Read More

Want to Avoid Another Depression: Stop Talking About It

They say that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. But, when it comes to the “Great Depression” comparisons now springing up amid this terrible economic climate, an equally fitting adage might be that those who dwell too much on history are doomed to repeat it — that’s essentially what Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who predicted the housing bust and much of the current financial crisis, says. “The attention… Read More

Commodities Specialist Rogers: Things Could Get Worse — Much Worse

While several prominent bears have turned bullish lately, there is by no means a consensus that we’re on the verge of a turnaround. Take Jim Rogers, the international investor and commodities guru who predicted the credit bubble crash two years ago. Rogers tells Fortune in its 2009 investment preview that “this may turn into the Great Depression II“. Rogers says that the lack of financing options for commodities firms means that commodity supplies are shrinking by… Read More