John Rekenthaler of Morningstar asks “what are the possible paths to outperformance?” and comes up with three options. Find the “market’s dummies”: First, he says, there is the “traditional approach”…
Tag: Market Timing
Hulbert: Stay in Equities Through a Bear Market
In his column for Barron’s, Mark Hulbert reports that his analysis shows that “the best bear market strategy may very well be to stay 100% invested in equities.” He says…
Top Market Timers Are Bullish
Mark Hulbert reports at Market Watch that, based on his survey, “the stock market timers with the best records are bullish, on balance, while those with the worst records are…
Lessons from Granville's Error and the Risks of Market Timing
Barry Ritholtz, founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management and columnist for Bloomberg, briefly recounts the story of Joseph Granville to convey the risk of “1) try[ing] to time markets; 2) tak[ing]…
Morningstar's Rekenthaler on Modest Market Timing
John Rekenthaler of Morningstar considers the case for modest market timing and concludes that “market-timing can be one of many useful items on an investor’s ‘shelf.'” Reviewing an article by…
AQR Tests Market Timing Techniques, Helping to Boost Long Term Returns
A recent article by Cliff Asness and colleagues from AQR Capital Management challenges the academic finance recommendation to avoid attempts to time the market. “Sinning a little,” Asness and…
A Disciplined Market-Timing System That Nearly Doubled The Market Over Four-Plus Decades
Trying to time the market often leads to big problems for most investors. But Validea CEO John P. Reese says that, in the hands of a highly disciplined investor, a…
Will The “Death Cross” be the Death Knell for the Market?
Technical analysts have long followed the so-called “Death Cross” as a leading indicator to predict a future market decline. The Death Cross occurs when the S&P 500’s 200 day moving…
Hulbert: Market Timers Heading For Exits, Could be Sign Bull Has More to Run
Market timers have been notoriously wrong over time and their current positioning could indicate that the recent bull market isn’t over yet, according to Mark Hulbert of Marketwatch. Hulbert’s Nasdaq…
Hulbert: Buy and Hold Still Wins
If you’ve spent time lately trying to figure out when the four-plus-year bull market will come to an end, Mark Hulbert has a message for you: Stop kidding yourself. “The…