While economic and monetary policy as well as “leading indicators” can provide insight regarding the state of the markets and the economy, “they have severe limitations as forecasting tools. This approach will not produce a definitive advance reading of a major shift from growth to contraction: a recession.” This according to a recent article by Yale professor and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller for The New York Times. Predicting a recession is extremely difficult to do,… Read More
Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller says we are facing a revolution rooted in a “huge acceleration in the amount of data available to researchers,” which he discusses in his new book Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events. This according to an article in Barron’s. Shiller, who reportedly predicted both the dot-com bust and the events that led to the 2008 financial crisis, argues that the last time there was a data… Read More
By Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) One of the most important things any investor can do is to challenge their own beliefs. Confirmation bias leads all of us to seek out opinions that agree with us and then use them to confirm what we already think to be true. That can be very dangerous, though, because you can end up missing obvious truths that are right in front of your eyes. Those who read my articles will… Read More
At the Inside ETFs conference in Florida last month, Yale professor and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller talked about an impending recession, the threat of nuclear war and the importance of human narratives. This according to an article in Advisor Perspectives. Here are some highlights: Shiller characterized a recession as “inevitable” but didn’t pinpoint timing. “There has to be an elevated probability of a recession this year or next year,” he said, noting that the current… Read More