A provocative article in The Atlantic highlights the unsuccessful track record of “expert” forecasters, regardless of their area of specialty or level of experience. However, the article points out that…
Tag: Philip Tetlock
The 40% Rule in Forecasting
A recent article in The Wall Street Journal discusses the 40% rule, which it describes as “a favorite forecasting tactic of Wall Street analysts and other prognosticators trying to make…
Focus on Fundamentals Rather than "Expert" Forecasts
By John Reese (@guruinvestor) — American philosopher and educator Nicholas Murray Butler once said, ” An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he…
The Frailty of Market Predictions
The unexpected Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory both occurred despite overwhelming predictions to the contrary, writes John Reese in a recent article for The Globe and Mail.…
The Forecaster and the Dart-Throwing Chimp
The ability to predict the future sounds pretty enticing, but few (if any) are any good at it. In 2005, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock studied how ‘experts’ did at forecasting,…
Tetlock On What Makes A Good Forecaster
How often are supposedly “expert” forecasters’ predictions right? A lot less often than you might think, according to researcher Philip Tetlock. But in a recent interview on Barry Ritholtz’s Masters…
What Makes a "Superforecaster?"
Writing in Adviser Perspectives, mathematician and economist Michael Edesess discusses Philip Tetlock’s work examining “superforecasters” with co-author Dan Gardner. Superforecasters, as Edesess explains, are the few volunteers in Tetlock’s forecasting…
4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
In the aggregate, forecasters may be “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimp,” but some forecasters are particularly and consistently far better than average. Credit Suisse reports that the book Superforecasting: The Art and…
Lessons from 2014's Forecasting Failure
What lessons can investors take from 2014? Don’t listen to short-term economic and stock market forecasts, says The wall street journal’s Jason Zweig. (more…)
Take It From The Gurus: Boring Is Beautiful
In a recent article for Canada’s Globe and Mail, Validea CEO John Reese says that when it comes to investing, boring is beautiful. (more…)