The 40% Rule in Forecasting

 A recent article in The Wall Street Journal discusses the 40% rule, which it describes as “a favorite forecasting tactic of Wall Street analysts and other prognosticators trying to make…

The Frailty of Market Predictions

The unexpected Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory both occurred despite overwhelming predictions to the contrary, writes John Reese in a recent article for The Globe and Mail.…

Tetlock On What Makes A Good Forecaster

How often are supposedly “expert” forecasters’ predictions right? A lot less often than you might think, according to researcher Philip Tetlock. But in a recent interview on Barry Ritholtz’s Masters…

What Makes a "Superforecaster?"

Writing in Adviser Perspectives, mathematician and economist Michael Edesess discusses Philip Tetlock’s work examining “superforecasters” with co-author Dan Gardner.  Superforecasters, as Edesess explains, are the few volunteers in Tetlock’s forecasting…