The unexpected Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory both occurred despite overwhelming predictions to the contrary, writes John Reese in a recent article for The Globe and Mail.…
Tag: Superforecasters
The Forecaster and the Dart-Throwing Chimp
The ability to predict the future sounds pretty enticing, but few (if any) are any good at it. In 2005, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock studied how ‘experts’ did at forecasting,…
Tetlock On What Makes A Good Forecaster
How often are supposedly “expert” forecasters’ predictions right? A lot less often than you might think, according to researcher Philip Tetlock. But in a recent interview on Barry Ritholtz’s Masters…
What Makes a "Superforecaster?"
Writing in Adviser Perspectives, mathematician and economist Michael Edesess discusses Philip Tetlock’s work examining “superforecasters” with co-author Dan Gardner. Superforecasters, as Edesess explains, are the few volunteers in Tetlock’s forecasting…
4 Ways On How to Improve Forecasting Skills, a Credit Suisse Report by Mauboussin
In the aggregate, forecasters may be “roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimp,” but some forecasters are particularly and consistently far better than average. Credit Suisse reports that the book Superforecasting: The Art and…