The Frailty of Market Predictions

The unexpected Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s presidential election victory both occurred despite overwhelming predictions to the contrary, writes John Reese in a recent article for The Globe and Mail.…

Tetlock On What Makes A Good Forecaster

How often are supposedly “expert” forecasters’ predictions right? A lot less often than you might think, according to researcher Philip Tetlock. But in a recent interview on Barry Ritholtz’s Masters…

What Makes a "Superforecaster?"

Writing in Adviser Perspectives, mathematician and economist Michael Edesess discusses Philip Tetlock’s work examining “superforecasters” with co-author Dan Gardner.  Superforecasters, as Edesess explains, are the few volunteers in Tetlock’s forecasting…