The Battle of Stocks vs. Bonds in 21st Century – Fixed Income Winning, So Far

Writing for the Wall Street Journal, Allen S. Roth of Wealth Logic questions the continuing validity of Prof. Jeremey Siegel’s contention that stocks are less risky than bonds over time. He observes that “it hasn’t panned out so far this century.” He showed the chart below to Prof. Siegel, who responded: “the starting point is very important. In 2000, the U.S. stock market was the most overvalued in its entire history. . . . We have also had a record decline in interest rates.” Siegel then asked: “Do you think bonds are going to do well over the next 10 years? Are U.S. interest rates going to minus 1% or lower?” Roth comments, “the odds are high that stocks will outperform bonds over the next 16 years,” but also notes that “the purpose of bonds is to be the stable portion of one’s portfolio” and “the long run may be longer than our clients can wait.”

stocks vs. bonds